Kyle Inan - Evolution of the International Monetary System

In 1979, after the failure of the snake in the tunnel system, a new system was introduced called the “European Monetary System” (EMS) where the European Currency Unit (ECU) would be defined. Some of the key terms of the agreement were: (1) The ECU, which is composed of a basket of currencies, would prevent any fluctuations above 2.25% in bilateral exchange rates among member countries. (2) A new system called the Exchange Rate System (ERS) would be established which would limit exchange rate variability and prepare grounds for monetary stability in Europe. (3) Credit would be extended to all the members in need.

In the outcome of negotiations, even though no currency was declared the key/anchor currency, the German Deutsche Mark and the German Bundesbank were undeniably lying at the heart of this system. This was mainly because of its relatively strong value compared to other currencies and due to the monetary policies of the bank, which advocated for low-inflation in European economies. Over time, it turned out that the implicit designation of the German currency, as some of the member countries did not welcome the anchor currency.

By the mid-1990s, the EMS had suffered a series of turbulences: (I) primarily with the escalating tension over which member country’s currency would be the anchor currency, (II) the implementation of incompatible economic policies among member countries followed by an increase in violation of the rule of 2.25% in bilateral exchange rates have caused the system to lose its elementary functions. “The European Monetary System was no longer a functional arrangement in May 1998 as the member countries fixed their mutual exchange rates when participating in the Euro.”

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Monetary_System)

This situation has gradually led to the foundation of a single European currency called the “Euro” (€) after the signing of the Treaty of Maastricht on February 7^th, 1992 which made the Euro the only legal tender for the European Community. Some of the most important criteria were: (I) controls on inflation levels (i.e. the inflation level in a given member country should not be more than 1.5% higher than the average of the other three members with the lowest inflation rates). (II) The proportion/ratio of the annual government deficit to gross domestic product (GDP) should not exceed the 3% margin by the end of the preceding fiscal year. (III) “Applicant countries should have joined the exchange-rate mechanism under the European Monetary System (EMS) for two consecutive years and should not have devalued its currency during the period. (IV) The nominal long-term interest rate must not be more than 2 percentage points higher than in the three lowest inflation member states.”

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maastricht_Treaty)

The purpose of the imposition of the Maastricht criteria was to bring about exchange rate stability to the Euro zone (also known as Optimum Currency Area), which is an economic union of member states that use the Euro as their currency. The benefits of joining the Optimum Currency Area included: (1) A higher economic integration, (2) free-movement of goods and services and factors of production, (3) Common tariff structures on non-members, (4) Economic symmetry and stability, and finally (5) more self-control on monetary policy. In 1998, 11 countries announced the adoption of Euro as their currency and in the following year, Euro was introduced and the European Central Bank was established.

Conclusion

The key foundation stone of the pre-war gold standard era required strict adherence to the rules of the game as currency convertibility was the crucial component for maintaining this regime. The emergence of the classical gold standard system prior to the WWI was accidental. This can be partially attributed to the fact that this regime evolved out in an era where a variety of commodities such as; cattle, wine, jewelry and diamonds were being used and traded for daily transactions instead of paper currency. A further contributing factor to the development of this regime came about with Britain’s accidental acceptance of a de facto gold standard system by the end of the nineteenth century. Britain’s assumption of both financial and commercial leadership has become an attractive alternative and a perfect substitute for silver. In the end, countries who had a desire to trade with Britain have gradually converted to a more popular gold-based system. It was precisely during this era, when an international system of fixed exchange rates came into effect.

Prior to the collapse of the Bretton Woods System in the early 1970s, there was a widespread belief in the international community that the high levels of volatility of capital flows were the root cause of the problem. The reason for this was the lack of tight regulation in international capital flows, which gave rise to a destabilization of national currencies.

In return, this international predicament forced governments to take drastic measures to protect their domestic economies whether by raising tariffs or by increasing import quotas, which is very similar to what they have done during the inter-war period. As a counterattack strategy, those countries that chose to devaluate their currencies would witness their immediate neighbors impose the same strategy of currency devaluation which then would trigger a reactionary war of tariffs and quotas.

In essence, the lessons extracted from the unfortunate economic circumstances of the 1930s have demonstrated that currency instability was the least desired strategy for the establishment of a free international trade. Therefore, it was understood that the restoration of global economic growth presupposed a system that would favor limited international capital flows and a sustainable regime for currency stability.

As for the grand monetary experiment conducted by the members of the European Union, there needs to be an increased level of willingness to forego a certain degree national sovereignty to create and further advance the dream of a full-fledged European Economic Integration. The initial steps for the formation of a complete monetary union were taken with the creation of a single common currency called the Euro. However, what is now a feasible economic goal for Europe stands as a difficult objective to be achieved for other regional monetary unions around the world such Latin America, the Middle East, Africa and East Asia as there is less willingness to comprise national sovereignty instead of a stronger monetary union.

WORKS CITED

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Eichengreen, Barry. (2008). “Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Monetary System” By Princeton University Press. Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey. (Second Edition)

Keynes, J.M. (1980). “The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes” Vol. 25 Activities 1940-1944: Shaping the Postwar World, The Clearing Union: MacMillan.

Kindleberger, P. Charles, (1993). “A Financial History of Western Europe” Published by Oxford

University Press, Inc., 200 Madioson Avenue, New York, New York. (Second Edition)

Simmons, C. Edward. (1936). “The Elasticity of the Federal Reserve Note” The American

Economic Review Vol. 26, No. 4 (December) pp. 683-690 (http://www.jstor.org/stable/1807996)

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